Dubai & UAE Economic Impact — Live Monitor
LIVEGST +4--:--:--
Conflict Active Strikes began: Feb 28, 2026 ~21:00 GST Op. Epic Fury / Iranian retaliation DXB/DWC: Limited restart Mar 2 · Most flights still suspended DFM: 6,114.71 (Mar 5 close, -5.98% from pre-war) Hormuz: Effectively closed · 4 transits/day vs 24 avg UAE: 1,000+ attacks intercepted (>92%) Sources: DCAA, Reuters, CNBC, AGBI, Cirium, Breaking Defense, Skift
Estimated Cumulative UAE Economic Impact Since Feb 28
$0[—]
Burn Rate: $0/min
Since Strikes: --
Sectors: 8
Flights Cancelled: 23,000+
Stranded: 20,200+
Industry Loss: ~$20B
✈
DXB & DWC Airport Closure
$1M/min (DCAA) · 27% of Dubai GDP · Limited restart Mar 2
Limited
$0
▼ $0/sec — $0/min
Cumulative Aviation Revenue Loss
Loss Rate (DCAA)$1,000,000 /min
Flights Cancelled (region)23,000+
Passengers Stranded20,200+ (UAE covering costs)
Emirates Daily Revenue~$98-100M/day lost · 41% global cancellation
Industry-wide Losses~$20B across ME carriers (TTW)
Status Mar 5Emirates/flydubai reduced schedule · Etihad suspended to Mar 9
Fuel CostsBrent $60→$82 · +30% fuel surcharge
📈
Dubai Financial Market (DFM)
Closed Mar 2-3 · Reopened Mar 4 · Mar 5 close: 6,114.71
Bleeding
6,114.71
▼ 5.98% (388.79 pts) from pre-war 6,503.50
Mar 4 (reopen)▼ 4.71% — worst day since May 2022
Mar 5 (today)▼ 1.33% (-82.48 pts)
Paper Value Lost (DFM+ADX)~$5-6B
Emaar Properties▼ 4.93% · Bond issuance shut
Emirates NBD▼ 5.00% · AWS outage hit banking
Air Arabia▼ 5.00%
DEWA / Amlak / Dubai Inv.▼ 5.00% each (limit down)
🏨
Tourism & Hospitality
20M visitors in 2025 · "Most chaotic since 9/11" (Harteveldt)
Collapsed
$0
▼ $0/sec — $0/min
Estimated Tourism Revenue Lost
Avg Daily Tourism Rev~$150-180M
Hotel Occupancy▼ 80% drop · 10% workforce at risk
Bookings Next 2-3 Weeks70-75% cancelled (Majestic Hotels)
Q1 Hotel RevenueCould drop 50% (Gates Hospitality)
Stranded GuestsUAE covering hotel & meals (GCAA)
2026 ME Arrivals Forecast▼ 11-27% decline expected
Recovery TimelineMonths — family spring breaks abandoned
⛽
Oil & Energy Sector
Hormuz effectively closed · 4 transits/day vs 24 avg · 200 tankers stranded
Crisis
$0.00
Brent Crude — ▲ Risk premium building
Pre-conflict Brent (Feb 25)~$70.78/bbl
Mar 5 Brent$82.76/bbl (+17%)
Risk Premium+$0.00
Hormuz Tanker Transits4/day vs 24 avg (Vortexa)
Iran Tanker Attacks3 tankers hit in strait
Barclays ForecastBrent could hit $100 · UBP says $120
Supply at Risk (JPM)4.7M bbl/day if shipping not restored
ADNOC Gas (ADX)▼ ~5%
🏗
Real Estate & Construction
AED 917B ($250B) in 2025 sales · 65% off-plan · 131K units due 2026
Selling
$0
Est. Transaction & Developer Losses
Emaar Properties▼ 5% · EPS growth at risk (analysts)
Aldar Properties (ADX)▼ 5% · Bond spreads widening
Bond IssuanceShut for new issuance (Reuters)
Off-plan Exposure65% of 2025 deals — pipeline at risk
Capital RaisingDeals shelved this week (senior banker)
Price Surge Pre-war+60% since 2022 — correction risk rising
🚢
Trade & Logistics
Jebel Ali 15.5M TEU hub · Cut off from global trade · Dual chokepoint crisis
Isolated
$0
Port & Free Zone Losses
Jebel Ali StatusOperational but isolated — no maritime workaround
MSC / Maersk / Hapag-LloydAll Hormuz crossings suspended
CMA CGM Surcharge$2-4K/container (Emergency Conflict)
War Risk InsuranceWithdrawn — effective Mar 5 (Marsh)
Hull Insurance Increase+25-50% for Gulf transits
Freight Rate SurgeUp to 300% · VLCC $20/bbl vs $2.50 avg
DP WorldFire at Jebel Ali contained · enhanced security
🛡
Defense & Interceptor Expenditure
THAAD ($15M ea) · Patriot PAC-3 MSE ($3-5M ea) · Barak-8 · Pantsir · Cheongung II · SkyKnight
~$1B/Day
$0
Est. Interceptor & Defense Costs Since Feb 28
Daily Defense Burn~$1B/day (AGBI/Stimson)
1,133+ projectiles launched at UAE189 ballistic + 3 cruise + 941 drones
UAE Intercept Rate1,000+ intercepted (>92%)
Iran's Attack Cost$194M - $391M total
UAE Defense Response$1.31B - $2.61B
Cost Ratio (per intercept)1 : 3-13x (attacker advantage)
Single Missile Kill Cost11 PAC-3 fired = $40M+ per missile
UAE Patriot Stockpile~7 days until depletion (Pentagon)
UAE Considering StrikesOffensive action on Iranian sites (Axios)
—
THAAD Rounds
($15M each)
—
Patriot PAC-3 MSE
($3-5M each)
645+
Drones
Intercepted
172+
Ballistic Missiles
Intercepted
800+ PAC-3 expended regionallyvs 620 produced in all of 2025
Pentagon admission"Years of production shot in days"
Qatar stockpile crisis~4 days of Patriot supply left
Casualties (UAE)4 killed · 78+ wounded
Multi-layer defense6 systems from 4 countries
📊
Impact Breakdown by Sector
Cumulative losses — real-time extrapolation from reported figures
Compounding
Aviation (DCAA $1M/min)$0
Defense Spending$0
Stock Market (Paper)~$5-6B
Tourism & Hotels$0
Trade & Logistics$0
Real Estate$0
Financial Services$0
Sector Loss Distribution (excl. paper market losses)
Aviation
Defense
Tourism
Trade
Real Est.
Finance
⚠ Estimates from DCAA, Reuters, CNBC, AGBI, Stimson Center, Cirium, Skift, Breaking Defense, Bloomberg, TTW, Vortexa, Marsh. Dashboard extrapolates reported rates in real time. Updated Mar 5, 2026.—